Packers Week 1 Analysis

Forget 15-1. Forget all your hopes of making a Week 1 statement with an emphatic victory over who Green Bay should have played in last year’s NFC Championship. The pipe dreams are over. Time to get serious.

Green Bay lost for two reasons:

1. Their ground game is horrible.
2. They lost the turnover battle. 

These reasons have been the reasons the Packers have lost any of their games over the last three seasons. When things are going well, the Packers grab an early lead, force their opponent to the air, pick off a pass or two and let Aaron Rodgers pick apart the opposing defense. And when things aren’t going well…

San Francisco happens. Alex Smith finished 20-26, 211 yards, 2 touchdowns and zero interceptions while 49er runners gained 186 yards on 32 carries. In the battle of opposing styles (grind it out vs. air it out), San Francisco won handily. 

An early second quarter Randy Moss touchdown followed a first quarter David Akers field goal to make the game 10-0. Aaron Rodgers connected with Jermichael Finley from one yard out with 4:40 remaining in the first half to bring the game within three points before two Akers kicks in the final minute made the game 16-7 at half. Akers kick at the end of the first half traveled 63-yards, tying an NFL record. The kick needed all of Akers’ leg as it bounced on the crossbar before ricocheting beyond the bar. 

Green Bay did not score in the third quarter. Second-year man Randall Cobb returned a fourth quarter punt to the end zone with 11:16 remaining. The play was initially flagged for a block in the back that was eventually waved off. Reviews of the play shed light on another Green Bay block, that went uncalled, that clearly came from behind.

The Bay teams traded touchdowns following Cobb’s score and the game came down to a final Green Bay drive with the home Packers down eight. The effort came up short, however, and the Packers matched their regular season loss total from 2011 in 15 less games. 

Outside linebacker Clay Matthews finished with 2.5 sacks and Charles Woodson appeared comfortable in his new safety role. Rookie outside linebacker Nick Perry finished with 8 tackles and played well. Rodgers threw an uncharacteristically poor interception, but performed well, finishing 30-44 for 303 yards and two touchdowns. 

San Francisco is the perfect team to beat the Packers. They focus on ball possession (33:00 in Week 1), winning the turnover battle (+1) and running the ball well (5.8 ypc) while stuffing the run on defense (3.2 ypc for Green Bay). 

So what should a Green Bay fan take from Week 1?

• The pass rush looks strong. Four sacks against San Francisco is no easy task. Clay Matthews played extremely well against 49ers left tackle Joe Staley, a 2011 Pro Bowler. Charles Woodson also recorded 1.5 sacks. The hope is that a consistent pass rush will create turnovers in future games.
• The run game might be worse than last year. The Packers offensive line simply does not open holes. The problem is not the absence of James Starks (toe) or a poor performance from Cedric Benson (9 carries, 18 yards). The problem is that Green Bay’s offensive line cannot run block and they played a very strong run defense. The run game, Green Bay’s biggest weakness, is the reason they struggle in games against the NFL’s best teams. Green Bay is nearly unbeatable when playing on their terms. When they get down early to a team that controls the ball, they become predictable offensively and tired defensively.

Green Bay Player of the Game

Interior linebackers A.J. Hawk recorded 14 tackles, a game high. Hawk’s activity in the middle prevented San Francisco from breaking a play bigger than 29 yards.

San Francisco Player of the Game

Frank Gore gained 112 yards on 16 carries, including a touchdown. Gore’s 7.0 yards per carry paced a consistent 49ers offense.

The Packers face a short preperation period before hosting Chicago on Thursday night. The 49ers will head home and prepare for the Detroit Lions and Sunday Night Football.

The Big Guy

Green Bay Packers 2012 Season Preview

The 2011 regular season in Green Bay was magical. A 15-1 season, an MVP quarterback in Aaron Rodgers and a giveaway/takeaway score of plus-24. The Packers entered the postseason with the look of a team made for modern football. Then the Giants came into town.

Rodgers posted a 78.5 passer rating, his worst of the season. The Packers turned the ball over four times against a single takeaway. Mix in a typically solid playoff performance from Eli Manning, four New York sacks and an untimely 37-yard Hakeem Nicks touchdown reception to end the first half and the Packers repeat aspirations were kaput.

Thanks to the masterful management of general manager Ted Thompson, the Packers return nearly everyone of significance. To wit, the Packers three pressing questions for 2012:

1. Will there be a run game? This question will be answered by many men. The addition of center Jeff Saturday could well be the move that organizes an offensive line that allowed 41 sacks last season. Of course, those sack numbers are skewed by the number of times Green Bay quarterbacks dropped back last season. However, Green Bay runners averaged a 26th ranked 3.9 yards/carry last season. The front line aside, most eyes will focus on free agent running back Cedric Benson. The 29-year-old Benson joins Green Bay following three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons in Cincinnati. However, do not get too excited, Benson averaged 3.9 yards/carry last season. The Packers best hope on the ground could be third-year man James Starks, who averaged 4.3 yards/carry on his way to 578 yards. A solid running game may no longer be fashionable, but it wins. Good running relieves a questionable defense…
2. Can the D improve? Green Bay led the NFL last season with 31 interceptions. The 38 total takeaways tied for the most in the NFL. Numbers like that ameliorate the 411.6 yards allowed per game. Overall, Green Bay allowed 22.4 points per game last season, ranking 19th. More than any other team, Green Bay forces their opponent to play their game. Rodgers and Company earn an early lead, the opposition is forced to throw and turnovers follow. However, in the rare case that Green Bay does not set the tempo, they are susceptible. A team like San Francisco or Baltimore could match up well against Green Bay. The irony of last season is that the Packers were eliminated in their kind of game, the New York Giants simply played it better. Green Bay totaled 41 sacks last season, the eleventh best number, but that number should be higher considering the number of passes they defended last season. A major factor in this year’s defense will be whether rookie outside linebacker Nick Perry can take some of the focus off of Clay Matthews, who recorded six sacks last season after totaling 13.5 in 2010. Increased pass-rush will help in games against the NFL’s upper echelon, such as the Giants. The defense was outstanding when playing on their terms in 2011, hopefully they will improve overall in 2012.
3. Will they execute? Like many great teams, much of Green Bay’s season will come down to little things like hanging on to a key third down reception or tackling a man one yard short. This is a game of inches in an age of 5,000 yard passers. These elements make a difference in a season but are immeasurable in the preseason. The Packers will be great, again. Whether or not they will be super will come down to the finest of details.

Key Games: Week 1- San Francisco, Week 4- New Orleans, Week 15- at Chicago

The Big Guy

A.J. Hawk Shows No Mercy!!!!