The laughter in San Antonio must be deafening. 

Last I checked, the Spurs were the reigning NBA champions. Miami’s dwindling Big Three crumbled to the likes of Patty Mills, Boris Diaw, Kawhi Leonard and San Antonio’s trusty trio of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili.

The repeat of last year’s Finals was compelling for a number of reasons: LeBron James, the greatest player on the planet, aiming for a three-peat; the before-your-eyes breakdown of Dwyane Wade’s career; the nearly decade-old trope of “can the Spurs do it one more time?” But there was bigger narrative at play. 

The Spurs represent the old-fashioned way of building a champion– drafting well, smart free-agent signings, standing by a demanding coach. They are a well-rounded team loaded with players willing to take less money to stick together and win. Tim Duncan made $10.3 million last year. Parker made $12.5 million. Ginobili played for $7.5 million. 

The recent Spurs re-signings have not been cheap, but they would be impossible were it not for their three best players all playing under contracts well below their market value. Diaw re-upped for three years, $22 million. Mills signed a three-year, $12 million deal. After a monster playoffs — he scored 31 combined points in Games 4 and 5 — Mills’ value was diminished when teams learned he would undergo shoulder surgery that would keep him out for eight months. At the end of the day, the Spurs look primed to return largely unchanged from last season’s championship run. (Your middle school gym teacher, I mean Matt Bonner, remains available).

Miami, on the other hand, represented the new model. Criticisms of Miami are difficult. LeBron, Chris Bosh and Wade all took slightly less than maximum money to play together. Despite the lack of cap space, important veterans like 2013 Game 6 hero Ray Allen and Shane Battier turned down richer avenues to chase greatness. The ESPN/Disney machine went into full marketing mode to produce a false dichotomy on the Heat: you had to either love them or hate them. I chose to respect their defensive efforts, their at-times selfless offense and ability to remain at ease under unprecedented microscopes.

I also vehemently wanted them to lose.

Ultimately, the Miami model for success operated on an incredibly thin margin. LeBron had to be superhuman all the time. He had to run the offense without a quality point guard on the floor. He had to rebound without a real center. And, of course, people expected this to not be an issue. I mean, he’s LeBron.

Don’t forget the Heat were at their best when Bosh was clicking on offense, opening the lane for Wade and James. When Bosh became even more of a perimeter player and Wade broke down, the LeBron load was incredible. And still, he won two rings. Had the Spurs not blown 2013 Game 6, it would have been one, but still.

Trust me, this all relates to the Bulls. As they, and everyone else, waits for the Carmelo domino to fall and finally kick off free agency, Chicago fans should be pleased to know their team is, almost certainly, out of the Anthony sweepstakes. Signing Carmelo would leave no room for 2011 draft pick Nikola Mirotic. The 23-year-old Euro big man can stroke it, and the Bulls appear close to signing him to an NBA deal.

Combine Mirotic with 2014 draft pick Doug McDermott and the Bulls have two legitimate scoring options off the bench. Of course, Chicago is waiting to see what exactly they have in former MVP Derrick Rose. If Rose can return to at least All-Star level, two strong shooters will help tremendously. Say what you want about McDermott’s potential, he could not have done more in college. He is a USA Basketball member who can score down low, pick and pop or spot up. The scouting report on Mirotic is similar. 

Should the Bulls add Mirotic, cap space will remain for a final addition after the long-awaited amnestying of Carlos Boozer. Much remains to be seen, but trading Mike Dunleavy sounds like a strong possibility. While McDermott and Mirotic both project as possible small forwards, the Bulls could go after another three-man and get away with either rookie playing the stretch four in today’s league. In that case, the hyper-talented Lance Stephenson remains an intriguing possibility. If anyone could hone Stephenson’s game, it would be Tom Thibodeau. Stephenson is already an outstanding defender, and his bulldog attitude would fit right in with the Bulls. Imagine running out Rose, Butler, Stephenson, Gibson and Noah with McDermott, Mirotic, D.J. Augustin on the bench.

While the mega-team fantasies continue to dominate NBA conversations, the BUlls are better off pursuing a San Antonio model. Mirotic may never be a Dirk or Manu, but reports on his game sound similar to the ones heard before Ginobili and Nowitzki’s arrivals. I hate to say it, but the biggest knock on McDermott seems to be his race. Those quiet misconceptions will quickly fade when he starts lighting teams up the way he did in the Big East. The Bulls need scoring, and while Carmelo certainly offers that, so do McDermott, Mirotic and a healthy Rose.

Carmelo has never been an all-around player, team-first player the kind we saw win the Finals this year, and, to be fair, the last 12 seasons. What reason is there to expect Carmel will change now? 

Image

OL KYLE LONG 

With the 20th pick in the first round of the 2013 NFL draft the Chicago Bears made people scratch their heads when the selected offensive linemen Kyle Long from Oregon. Now the Bears general manager Phil Emery has been known to go outside the box and shock people with his early draft picks, as he did last year by taking Shea McClellin with his first pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. Emery stuck to his routine when former NFL great Howie Long’s son was taken much earlier then pro scouts anticipated he would be selected. The 6’6 313 pound linemen has the pedigree and size to be a first round draft pick, but only started in four games in his collegiate career, which made him a stretch when the Bears selected him so early. Long originally went to Oregon to be a pitcher for the baseball team, and was a quarterback in high school.

As we are now preparing for the 3rd game of the preseason Kyle Long has people in Chicago very excited. Long has won the starting position at right guard, and shined in the Bears 2nd preseason game against the San Diego Chargers. Kyle Long dominated as he showed great quickness, strength, ability to get to the next level, and a great amount of nasty in his game.(Which the Bears offensive line has been missing since Olin Kreutz retired)  Footballfocus.com gave Kyle Long a +5.7 for the game, which for a lineman is fantastic. Matt Forte scored a touchdown when the Bears ran the ball right up Long’s butt, and converted 66% of their 3rd downs with Long in the game. Now I know its only preseason and Long has played in just 2 games in his NFL career, but I believe that Kyle Long will be a Bear for a very long time as he learns the game his Rookie year. Look for Long to be one of the centerpieces of the Bears line for years to come.

On a side note the thing that many pro scouts used against Long was the fact that he played in only 4 games ever for Oregon, which made him a stretch at 1st round. I believe that because Long is ahead of schedule with learning the position in the NFL, playing in only 4 games benefits Long dramatically. His body is fresh because he didn’t have the typical wear and tear that the typical college linemen has to go through. Phil Emery may have looked foolish on draft day, but by seasons end he could look like a genius, only time can tell.

With preseason nearing dress rehearsals in Week 3, The Big Guy takes a look at potential breakout offensive players in 2013. These players showed signs of promise in 2012 or enter their rookie seasons in a particularly promising position to demonstrate their abilities. Agree? Disagree? Let me know in the comments.

ImageQuarterback: Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs

The first pick of the 2005 draft looked like he had developed into a reliable mid-level starter in 2011, throwing for 17 touchdowns and five interceptions in a 13-3 season. In his two playoff games he produced six touchdowns without a turnover. Things were going well in 2012 until a concussion knocked him out of the starting role that backup Colin Kaepernick would never relinquish. Now a Chief, Smith is a perfect fit for Andy Reid’s West Coast offense. According to CBS Sports, Reid made multiple attempts to acquire Smith when Reid was in Philadelphia. Barring injury, Kansas City has too much talent to not improve dramatically on a 2-14 record last year.

Running Back: Daryl Richardson, St. Louis

The 252nd pick of last year’s draft, Richardson carried the ball 98 times for 475 yards last season. A capable receiver as well, Richardson has locked up the starting role for the Rams with the departure of Steven Jackson. The Rams are my pick to breakout in the NFC this season and Richardson is one of several reasons why.

ImageRunning Back: Lamar Miller, Miami

Another second-year back, Miller will be the primary rusher for the Dolphins this season following Reggie Bush’s move to Detroit. Miller earned a meager 51 carries last season, but averaged 4.9 yards per carry. He averaged 5.7 ypc in his two seasons at Miami. He only has seven carries through the first two preseason games, but look for him to get plenty of chances to show off his 4.4 speed in Week 3 against Tampa Bay.

Wide Receiver: Michael Floyd, Arizona

The 2012 first-rounder emerged late last season after struggling to ingratiate himself into the Cardinals offense. From Weeks 1-7 he was targeted more than three times only once. In the last nine games of the season he caught 37 balls for 471 yards. He went out with a bang in Week 17 against the 49ers when he hauled in eight catches for 166 yards and a touchdown. With Carson Palmer spinning it, look for both Larry Fitzgerald and Floyd to significantly improve their numbers.

ImageWide Receiver: Alshon Jeffery, Chicago

This guy oozes talent. The 6’3″, 216 pounder had 1,517 receiving yards and nine touchdowns in his second season at South Carolina. Knee problems limited him to ten games his rookie year for the Bears, finishing with 24 catches for 367 yards and three touchdowns. If new coach Marc Trestman’s offense is going to succeed in 2013, Jeffery has to produce as Chicago’s second receiver. Much of that will depend on quarterback Jay Cutler’s willingness to throw to Jeffery. Cutler threw all five of his Week 2 passes to Brandon Marshall and Jeffery has only one catch so far in preseason. Keep an eye on Jeffery in Chicago’s Friday dry run against the Radiers.

Tight End: Zach Sudfeld, New England

The undrafted tight end from Nevada has turned heads throughout training camp in Foxborough and suddenly looks like a valuable commodity considering Rob Gronkowski’s uncertain recovery timetable following offseason back surgery and Aaron Hernandez’s murder trial. At 6’7″, 225 pounds, he he could very well file into Hernandez’s former role. Sudfeld had two receptions for 32 yards and a touchdown in the Pat’s second preseason game against Detroit.

Offensive Line: Pittsburgh

The Steelers struggled to run the ball in 2012, finishing 26th in yards per game with 96.1. A full season from 2012 first-round pick David DeCastro will help Pittsburgh reclaim their identity as maulers. Led by three-time All-Pro center Maurkice Pouncey, the average age of the starting unit will be 24.4. Starting right tackle Mike Adams is said to be healthy and strong seven weeks after being stabbed twice in a carjacking, according to ESPN.

jULIO-SMOKE

                AFC EAST                                          NFC EAST
               1.New England Patriots  12-4                  1.Washington Redskins  11-5
               2.Miami Dolphins        7-9                      2.New York Giants      11-5
               3.New York Jets         5-11                     3.Dallas Cowboys       8-8               
               4.Buffalo Bills         4-12                        4.Philadelphia Eagles  7-9
                 AFC NORTH                                        NFC NORTH
               1.Cincinnati Bengals    12-4                     1.Green Bay Packers    12-4
               2.Baltimore Ravens      11-5                     2.Chicago Bears        11-5
               3.Pittsburg Steelers    9-7                        3.Minnesota Vikings    7-9
               4.Cleveland Browns      6-10                     4.Detroit Lions        6-10
                AFC SOUTH                                         NFC SOUTH
                1.Houston Texans        10-6                     1.Atlanta Falcons      13-3
                2.Indianapolis Colts    10-6                      2.Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7
                3.Tennessee Titans      7-9                       3.New Orleans Saints   8-8
                4.Jacksonville Jaguars  2-14                     4.Carolina Panthers    7-9
               AFC WEST                                           NFC WEST
                1.Denver Broncos        13-3                     1.Seattle Seahawks     13-3
                2.Kansas City Chiefs    8-8                        2.San Francisco 49ers  11-5
                3.San Diego Chargers    6-10                    3.St.Louis Rams        10-6
                4.Oakland Raiders       3-13                      4.Arizona Cardinals    2-14

First Round Byes; AFC- Broncos,Patriots. NFC-Seahawks,Falcons.
Wildcard Round;   AFC- Bengals vs. Colts; Ravens vs. Texans.
Wildcard Round;   NFC- Packers vs. 49ers; Bears vs. Redskins.
Divisional Round; AFC- Broncos vs. Ravens; Patriots vs. Bengals.
Divisional Round; NFC- Falcons vs. Packers; Seahawks vs. Bears.
Championship Games; AFC- Broncos vs. Patriots; NFC Falcons vs. Seahawks
Superbowl;  Broncos vs. Falcons
Champion; Falcons

Coach Tom

Every Saturday The Big Guy will look at the week that was for the top ten Chicago Cubs prospects. With the Cubs in rebuild mode, we are keeping an eye on the youngsters bound for Wrigley. Our list is based on mlb.com‘s rankings, but adjusted for accuracy.

  1. Top prospect Javier Baez.

    Top prospect Javier Baez.

    Javier Baez, SS, Tennessee–Baez is on fire right now, hitting walk-off home runs in consecutive games for the AA Smokies. In six games, Baez was 10-22 with three doubles, three home runs, seven RBI and three walks. Since getting called up on July 6 he is batting .293/.355/.631 with 14 home runs. Perhaps most importantly he has improved his defense. His fielding percentage is up to .946 from .922 in A+.

  2. Kris Bryant, 3B, Daytona–If only every week in the minors could be like Bryant’s. The second pick of this year’s draft started in A- Boise and ended in A+ Daytona. Bryant hit .458 in seven games this week, with two home runs and six RBI. With many of the Cubs prospects at least another year away from the big leagues, Bryant looks to be on the fast track to Wrigley. He will likely be the Opening Day third baseman next season.
  3. Albert Almora, CF, Kane County–The 19-year-old first round pick from 2012 has not played since August 4 due to a hamstring issue. He is batting .329/.376/.466 on the year.
  4. Jorge Soler, OF, Daytona–Soler has been out for the season since June with a stress fracture in his foot. He batted .280/.342/.464 with eight homers and 35 RBI.
  5. Kyle Hendricks, SP, Iowa–This year’s star of the system, Hendricks made his second start in AAA this week. He went 5 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 7 K, 3 BB. The fact that this was one of his worst outings of the year speaks to Hendricks’ dominance. In 138.1 IP this season he owns a 1.95 ERA. Don’t be surprised if Hendricks is the next Cubs prospect to earn a shot in the big leagues.
  6. C.J. Edwards, SP, Daytona–Edwards went 5 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 3 K, 0 BB. The real jewel of the Matt Garza trade, Edwards has been excellent all year. In 108 innings, batters are hitting .175 against him with 142 strikeouts to 39 walks. Projections peg Edwards as a potential number four starter, but he looks capable of more.
  7. Pierce Johnson, SP, Daytona–Johnson picked up his tenth win of the season this week when we threw 5.2 innings of shutout ball, scattering four hits and three walks between seven strikeouts. The 22-year-old righty has been masterful in A+ Daytona this year with a 2.16 ERA and 8.9 K/9. Through 111.1 IP this season he has a 2.75 ERA.
  8. Big Dan Vogelbach

    Big Dan Vogelbach

    Dan Vogelbach, 1B, Daytona–Another talent in Daytona, Vogelbach earned his call-up on Tuesday. In eight games, he batted .346/.433/.500 with one home run and two RBI. He also picked up four walks. At 6’0″, 250 pounds, the round second-round pick from 2011 could be used as trade bait for an AL team in a year or two in exchange for an arm.

  9. Mike Olt, 3B, Iowa–Olt was mired in a horrible year before he was sent to the Cubs in the Garza deal. Then things got bad. He went 2-22 this week with six strikeouts. With a .120 average since joining AAA Iowa, it seems like it might be best for Olt to simply shut it down for the rest of the year. Something interesting I just noticed on baseball-reference.com was that Olt had a home run and three RBI in each of his last two games in the Rangers organization. Those two games were against the Iowa Cubs.
  10. Arismendy Alcantara, 2B, Tennessee–In five games the only Cub to play in this year’s Future’s Game went 2-17 with four walks. Tough week in a tough month; he is batting .207 without a home run over his last 24 games. Let’s hope this is just a bump in the road of what’s been an impressive season for the 21-year-old.

The Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers are two similar teams battling for the same goal. It was no surprise then that in their final meeting of the year, the teams played nearly the exact same game. And a look at the standings indicates no surprise that the White Sox won, barely.

Entering the contest separated by two games, the Sox and the Tigers each sent a quality starting pitcher to the mound. Both men were treated rudely. Both men lasted four innings.

Jose Quintana, the 23-year-old rookie lefty, pitted Chicago down 3-0 in the top of the third when the bottom part of the Detroit order gave him trouble. Singles by #8 hitter, Avisail Garcia, and #9 hitter, Gerald Laird, preceded an RBI single by Detroit’s superb leadoff man, Austin Jackson. Detroit’s Omar Infante followed with a sacrifice bunt, which moved the runners to second and third. Chicago manager Robin Ventura countered by intentionally walking Miguel Cabrera. Quintana followed the walk by striking out Prince Fielder, but then allowed a two-run single to Delmon Young. A wild pitch, an intentional walk, and a Brandon Boesch strikeout later, the White Sox were lucky to find themselves only down three.

The White Sox responded in the bottom of the fourth. With the bases loaded, Tigers pitcher Doug Fister hit Chicago second baseman (and #9 hitter) Gordon Beckham for a hurts so good RBI. Dewayne Wise followed with a two-run single to tie the game at 3-3.

The Tigers responded immediately, reclaiming the lead in the top of the fifth with Delmon Young’s third RBI of the game. Following a Miguel Cabrera double and an exceedingly rare Prince Fielder infield single that bounced Jose Quintana from the game, Young welcomed reliever Nate Jones with a single to center. That would be the last Tigers hit of the game.

Following his opponent’s lead, Doug Fister exited the game after allowing a leadoff single and double in the bottom of the fifth. In the play of the game, following an Alex Rios walk and an A.J. Pierzynski lineout, Infante booted a potential double play ball. The error cost the Tigers two runs, and potentially a whole lot more.

Five Chicago White Sox bullpen pitchers combined to allow one hit over five innings. Trade deadline acquisition Brett Myers pitched a spotless inning-and-a-third and rookie closer Addison Reed recorded the final out for his 27th save of the season.

Detroit’s bullpen pitched admirably as well, allowing two hits over four scoreless innings.

The win leaves Chicago three games up in the AL Central with 16 games left. The respective teams’ next three games loom large. Detroit, desperate to make up ground, host the surging Oakland Athletics while Chicago visits the Kansas City Royals, against whom the Sox are 5-10 this season. Now would be a good time for the Sox to beat up on a team everyone has whooped this season.

The Tigers do end the season with 13 games against the Royals and fellow AL Central cellar dweller Minnesota, but by that point they may be in need of nothing less than a miracle. The Sox have held off the Tigers all season. In the final stretch of the season these two similar teams will need suddenly disparate finales.

The Big Guy

First-year Illini men’s basketball coach John Groce landed his most heralded recruit to date with the commitment of Chicago Simeon shooting guard Kendrick Nunn.

The 6-foot-1 Nunn ranks 56th on ESPN.com’s top 100 rankings. The left-handed Nunn is said to possess a smooth shooting stroke from beyond the arc and impressive body control when going to the hole. At 175 pounds, Nunn will need to add a bit more meat to his frame to avoid being physically outmatched. Known as an unselfish player, Nunn works well on the break and consistently works to stretch the defense.

Nunn chose the Illini over Memphis, Ohio State and Marquette. He is the third commit to the 2013 class, joining the #25 shooting guard, 6-foot-5 Malcolm Hill, and the #19 center, 6-foot-10 Maverick Morgan.

Nunn averaged 15 points per game last season while winning his third consecutive state championship. The winning patterns continued when Nunn helped Team USA win gold at the FIBA U17 World Championship this summer.

While much will be made about Nunn’s commitment possibly influencing his superstar teammate, top-ranked recruit Jabari Parker, do not drink the Kool Aid. Parker’s list has not included the Illini since he came out with his top ten, and he appears ready to cut his list down to five.

The addition of Nunn is a major accomplishment, and for a team in transition like the Illni, it should be enough to add some serious anticipation for years to come.

The Big Guy

The new look Chicago Bears started their 2012 NFL season in fashion, with a 41-21 victory over the Indianapolis Colts. 4 days later Cutler, and his new offensive take on their old rivals in the NFL in the Green Bay Packers. Cutler and the Bears have now dropped 4 straight games to a team in which head coach Lovie Smith has made target number 1 since becoming the organizations head coach, and look to finally turn things around in a season where many believe they can make it to the Super Bowl. Here are my Key Points to the Bears beating the Packers.

  1. Fast Start by the Offense. In the Bears season opener against the Indianapolis Colts, the offense got off to a very slow start. The Bears 1st possession started at their own 16 yard line, and their next 4 plays went as followed; 1st down- Cutler sacked for a 12 yard loss, false start on RT Carimi, 2nd down-(2nd and 24 at the 2 yard line) Matt Forte rush for 3 yards, 3rd down-Cutler pass incomple to Alshon Jeffery, 4th down- punt. The Bears first possession had many worried that this highly bragged about new offense was no different from last seasons team. Things got no better in their second possession when the Bears again started in terrible field position. The Bears started their drive on their one 3 yard line in which Jay Cutler made a terrible decision by throwing a bullet out to Forte in flats, rather than just floating it over, and it was easily intercepted for a touchdown by Freeman and the Colts were up 7-0. Cutler ended the first quarter 3-12 with 21 yards passing. After the first quarter Cutler was a new man and went 18-23 with 312 yards and 2 touchdowns. After the slow start, the Bears new offense really looked as though they will have no problem putting points on the scoreboard this season. However if the Bears offense gets off to a slow start at Lambeau Field, then Aaron Rodgers and the Packers could put the Bears away early. The Packers defense is much more difficult to play against when the Packers have a lead, and it gets Matthews going early. So it is key for Culter and the Bears to get off to a fast start tonight if they hope to win.
  2. Continue the 2 headed attack at running back. In the Bears season opener Matt Forte and Michael Bush gave the Bears a great dual back threat in the backfield. Forte finished the game with 16 carries, 80 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 receptions, 40 yards. Michael Bush finished the game with 12 carries, 42 yards, 2 touchdowns. The Bears made it very clear the Forte is the feature back and don’t be surprised if you see Forte used more in the slot during the Packers game tonight. Forte got paid the big bucks this off season, and he is showing why he is worth every penny. Bush will be used primarily as the goal line back, which he showed he can do very well in week 1 with 2 touchdowns, and to keep Forte fresh throughout the game. With the new receiving threats down the field, look for the Bears running game to be great this season. 
  3. Offensive Line must contain Clay Matthews. First lets start with how the Bears suspect offensive line did in the season opener against the Colts. The line gave up just 2 sacks against the Colts, and the Bears were able to rush for 114 yards on the day. Now I’m not ready to say their problems are solved based off just one game, but they did impress many with their solid play. With that said, Clay Matthews looked to be on a mission against the 49ers in their season opener, recording 2.5 sacks on the day. To make Matthews day even better, he did this against Pro Bowler Joe Staley for the San Francisco 49ers. Matthews wheels will be turning to prove the Bears J’Marcus Webb doesn’t stand a chance. Now i do agree that Webb can not stop Matthews one-on-one, but if the Bears can help with sending a tightend, or running back to chip Matthews, and slow him down without getting rid of productivity, then the Bears should be fine.

Chicago Bears fans could not feel any better after such a great game by the Bears after week one, and many believe that the Bears could actually go into Lambeau and win the game tonight. I too believe the Bears can win, but only if these 3 things happen throughout the game. This game will prove the Bears are a force to fear in the NFC.

 

 

Coach Tom

The suddenly high-flying Chicago Bears strut into Lambeau Field boasting of unprecedented weapons and unbridled confidence. Four days removed from a 41-21 shellacking of the Indianapolis Colts, Chicago enters with an opportunity to claim a quick two game lead on their primary division rivals. Green Bay has other plans.

A pair of home games aside, Week 1 could not have been more different for these two teams. Chicago welcomed a rookie quarterback and last year’s worst team. Green Bay hosted a team that took the Super Bowl champions into overtime in the NFC Championship. The Colts turned the ball over with zest, the 49ers may as well have been Tiki Barber’s chest.

Does Chicago have more weapons than ever before? Yes, they do. They still do not have as many weapons as Green Bay. Both defensively and offensively, the Packers possess more explosive talent than the Bears. By putting those weapons to use, the Packers can win. Here’s how:

  1. Run Randall Cobb. The Packers broke out a new look last week by consistently placing Cobb in the shotgun backfield beside Aaron Rodgers. Cobb never took a handoff out of the set, but caught several passes while matched up with linebackers. His nine catches were a game high. The only Packer to take a handoff was Cedric Benson, who finished with a dismal 18 yards on nine carries. Desires to scrap the run game as a whole aside, the Packers would be best served by sticking the ball into Cobb’s belly.  In his three seasons as Mr. Everything for the University of Kentucky, Cobb averaged 5.8 yards per carry. At 192 pounds, Cobb will not bang out tough yards; good thing the Packers run the spread. Look for Cobb to take some carries tonight and spark life into a moribund run game.
  2. Charles Woodson shadows Brandon Marshall. Jay Cutler targeted his old buddy 15 times in Week 1 and Chicago’s offseason prize finished with nine catches for 119 yards. Marshall did his work against Jerraud Powers (who?) and Vontae Davis (who had three weeks to learn the Colts’ defense). Tonight’s coverage will be a different story. In his new hybrid safety/cornerback role, Woodson enjoys more freedom to roam than ever, so expect defensive coordinator Dom Capers to make Marshall, wherever he lines up, priority number one for Woodson. Rookie wideout Alshon Jeffery will likely face one-on-one coverage from Tramon Williams with coverage consistently sliding toward Marshall. Cutler— gunslinger comment here— will force the ball to Marshall, so do not be surprised when Woodson gains his first pick of the season. The only gamble is that the 5-foot-10 Williams, a 2010 Pro Bowler, will be able to handle the 6-foot-3 Jeffery.
  3. Clay Matthews commands double-teams. The 49ers trusted Pro Bowler Joe Staley to single-handedly control Matthews. That led to 2.5 sacks. With no chance that the Bears trust J’Marcus Webb to take Matthews on one-on-one, look for double-teams to open opportunities for rookie outside linebacker Nick Perry to record his first career sack. The double-teams Matthews will command opens opportunities for all of the Packers defense and increase the chance for the most indicative statistic in projecting Green Bay success, turnovers.

The 49ers played a perfect game in Week 1. They did not turn the ball over, maintained a perfect balance between run and pass (32 rushes to 26 passes) and bottled the Packers offense to only one play over 30 yards. The Bears, on the other hand, whooped up on a whimpy team. This game will be highly competitive, and there is more to learn about the Bears than the Packers in this one. We know the Packers remain in the elite of the NFL. Tonight, we will see if the Bears do as well. Look for the Packers to take an early lead, hold off an impressive Bears offense, and even things up in the division. The Bears are a solid playoff team, but do not belong with the big boys.

Prediction: Packers, starring Randall Cobb, win 30-21

The Big Guy

Wednesday was Nate McLouth’s turn to play hero.

The Baltimore Orioles magical season continued when McLouth, the newly anointed leadoff man, blasted a lined shot off the right field wall in the bottom of the ninth with Manny Machado standing on second base. The walk-off single ended the game at 3-2.

The win, Baltimore’s seventh in their last ten games, moves the Orioles three game ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays in the American League East. The New York Yankees defeated the Boston Red Sox and remain tied with the Orioles atop the division.

Tampa Bay leadoff hitter B.J. Upton started the game with a first inning homer to left to give the Rays an instant 1-0 lead. Baltimore responded in the bottom half of the inning with RBI singles from catcher Matt Wieters and designated hitter Wilson Betemit. The Rays tied the game in the third on left fielder Ben Francisco’s double to left.

The Orioles are lucky to have kept this game close. Starter Miguel Gonzalez spread six hits and five walks over six innings pitched. In ten at-bats with runners in scoring position, Tampa only scored one man. While Gonzalez finished with a no decision, his 6-4, 3.57 ERA year has been a revelation.

Last year, Gonzalez was an 0-7 pitcher with a 5.40 ERA over 56.2 innings pitched at all three levels of Boston’s farm system. Released in December 2011, the Orioles signed Gonzalez this March to a one-year deal for an undisclosed sum assuredly below his season’s value. In his first year in the big leagues, the 28-year-old has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in seven of his 12 starts.

The Baltimore bullpen once again pitched lights out, with Darren O’Day, Pedro Strop and Jim Johnson each contributing an inning of scoreless relief. The right-handed trio leads the bullpen with the seventh lowest ERA in baseball.

On top of scoring the winning run, Machado also recorded the defensive play of the game. With two outs in the top of the ninth and Tampa pinch-runner Rich Thompson on second, Evan Longoria topped a slow roller to third. With no play at first, Machado barehanded the ball and feinted a throw to first. Machado followed the fake with a pirouetting throw to shortstop J.J. Hardy who was covering third without Thompson’s notice. As Thompson rounded the bag, Hardy caught the ball and started a rundown that eliminated a potential scoring threat. Both team’s praised the young converted shortstop’s awareness.

At 80-62, the Orioles stand 23rd in on-base percentage, 25th in quality starts and have been outscored by 21 runs. They are also 26-7 in one-run games, a division-best 34-24 against the AL East and 63-0 when leading after seven innings.

Plain and simple, the Orioles know how to win. In an age of sabermetrics and advanced statistics, there is no explaining the Orioles beyond the fact that they score when they need to and never blow a late lead. That equation seems simple enough.

The Big Guy