Orioles Keep At It

Wednesday was Nate McLouth’s turn to play hero.

The Baltimore Orioles magical season continued when McLouth, the newly anointed leadoff man, blasted a lined shot off the right field wall in the bottom of the ninth with Manny Machado standing on second base. The walk-off single ended the game at 3-2.

The win, Baltimore’s seventh in their last ten games, moves the Orioles three game ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays in the American League East. The New York Yankees defeated the Boston Red Sox and remain tied with the Orioles atop the division.

Tampa Bay leadoff hitter B.J. Upton started the game with a first inning homer to left to give the Rays an instant 1-0 lead. Baltimore responded in the bottom half of the inning with RBI singles from catcher Matt Wieters and designated hitter Wilson Betemit. The Rays tied the game in the third on left fielder Ben Francisco’s double to left.

The Orioles are lucky to have kept this game close. Starter Miguel Gonzalez spread six hits and five walks over six innings pitched. In ten at-bats with runners in scoring position, Tampa only scored one man. While Gonzalez finished with a no decision, his 6-4, 3.57 ERA year has been a revelation.

Last year, Gonzalez was an 0-7 pitcher with a 5.40 ERA over 56.2 innings pitched at all three levels of Boston’s farm system. Released in December 2011, the Orioles signed Gonzalez this March to a one-year deal for an undisclosed sum assuredly below his season’s value. In his first year in the big leagues, the 28-year-old has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in seven of his 12 starts.

The Baltimore bullpen once again pitched lights out, with Darren O’Day, Pedro Strop and Jim Johnson each contributing an inning of scoreless relief. The right-handed trio leads the bullpen with the seventh lowest ERA in baseball.

On top of scoring the winning run, Machado also recorded the defensive play of the game. With two outs in the top of the ninth and Tampa pinch-runner Rich Thompson on second, Evan Longoria topped a slow roller to third. With no play at first, Machado barehanded the ball and feinted a throw to first. Machado followed the fake with a pirouetting throw to shortstop J.J. Hardy who was covering third without Thompson’s notice. As Thompson rounded the bag, Hardy caught the ball and started a rundown that eliminated a potential scoring threat. Both team’s praised the young converted shortstop’s awareness.

At 80-62, the Orioles stand 23rd in on-base percentage, 25th in quality starts and have been outscored by 21 runs. They are also 26-7 in one-run games, a division-best 34-24 against the AL East and 63-0 when leading after seven innings.

Plain and simple, the Orioles know how to win. In an age of sabermetrics and advanced statistics, there is no explaining the Orioles beyond the fact that they score when they need to and never blow a late lead. That equation seems simple enough.

The Big Guy

Look At Me Now!!!

The Baltimore Orioles stand tied atop the AL East standings with 25 games to go. In a year where every Oriole seems to have hit a stretch strong enough to carry the team for a few games, Mark Reynolds currently fills that role.

Mark Reynolds, 8/30: .221, 12 HR, 42 RBI

Mark Reynolds, 9/6: .235, 20 HR, 56 RBI

No misprint. Over a course of seven games, Reynolds has blasted eight home runs, collected 16 RBI and boosted his batting average 14 points. Only three of his hits have stayed in the ballpark. He also walked four times.

The Orioles are 5-2 during Reynolds ridiculous run. In last night’s 10-6 victory over New York, Reynolds sent two balls into the left field stands and drove in three runs. His two-run eighth inning shot made it a three-run game and gave the Orioles breathing room.

Reynolds September production, six homers with 13 RBI, identically matches his August production, albeit in 58 fewer at-bats. Many teams would have dropped Reynolds from the lineup after months like this:

• June: .218, 4 home runs, 11 RBI, .326 OBP, 27 K
• July: .207, 2 home runs, 10 RBI, .301 OBP, 29 K

But in magical seasons, an underperforming corner infielder can seemingly flip a switch an become the big bopper his team hoped for all year. Reynolds will likely finish with his lowest home run total since his 2007 rookie campaign. However, a man with 141 home runs from 2008-2011 will strike fear into any pitching staff. A week ago, Reynolds numbers belied his otherworldly power. Not anymore. Pitchers beware.

The Big Guy

Orioles Acquire Joe Saunders

As I wrote earlier today, the Baltimore Orioles compensate for a shaky starting rotation with a lights out bullpen. Now comes the news of a trade that sends relief pitcher Matt Lindstrom to Arizona for starting pitcher Joe Saunders. The addition of Saunders will likely bounce 24-year-old lefty Zach Britton out of the rotation. Britton’s 3-1 record belies his 5.59 ERA. However, a look at the advanced metrics suggests that Saunders is not much of an improvement over Britton.

• SIERA– Skill Interactive ERA is not that confusing. According to Fangraphs, “SIERA attempts to answer the question: what is the underlying skill level of this pitcher?” SIERA accounts for many factors that attempt to even the playing field for all pitchers and only punish them for their own mistakes. Joe Saunders currently owns a 4.21 SIERA while pitching in the National League West. The man he was traded for, Lindstrom, owns a 3.51 SIERA. The man Saunders will likely bump in the rotation, Britton, has a 4.49 SIERA. It is interesting that Saunders’ ERA is 4.22, which makes sense considering that Arizona is about a league average fielding team. Baltimore is the second worst fielding team in baseball, which helps explain Brittons 1.10 point increase in his real ERA compared to his SIERA. Expect Saunders’ ERA to increase with Baltimore for two reasons: one, he will face better lineups and two, his fielders are now worse.

Baltimore tapped their strongest resource, bullpen pitching, to improve their weakest asset, starting pitching. However, Saunders career win-loss record is heavily inflated due to solid defense. His lifetime ERA of 4.17 is lower than his lifetime SIERA of 4.66. His career season of 2008, when he went 17-7, is significantly attributable to solid defense as his ERA that year was 3.41 but his SIERA was 4.71. Saunders is a slight upgrade over Britton, but the loss of Lindstrom, and his solid 3.51 SIERA, may prove to be the biggest impact of this trade.

The Big Guy

How the Baltimore Orioles keep on winning

The numbers do not add up. How can a team outscored by 46 runs against its opponents stand 12 games above .500? How can a team with the fourth fewest quality starts and the sixth lowest on-base percentage find themselves tied for the second American League Wild Card spot with 36 games to play? Casual fans may know Adam Jones, Baltimore’s All-Star centerfielder. More avid fans may know their two other All-Stars, closer Jim Johnson and catcher Matt Wieters.

The answers to the Orioles improbable are not unusual. Any given year a team can find a spark, a bit of confidence the heavyweights of the baseball world do not want the little guys to have. All of a sudden, Texas leaguers begin to drop. Guys not listed in the pregame program hit momentum-altering home runs. The signs of a blessed season are all there for Baltimore. Here are a few:

• 23-6 and 12-2: The records, respectively, of Baltimore in one-run games and extra-innings games. No other team comes close to the O’s winning percentage in tight games. Division rivals New York and Tampa Bay are 15-18 and 18-21, respectively. When the game passes the ninth frame, Baltimore is again the best in the business. Only Washington also boasts double-digit extra-innings wins, standing 11-6. This year’s Orioles could rival the daring and chutzpah of a Cirque du Soleil act. Shockingly, the O’s cannot attribute their close game success to solid fundamentals— their 94 errors are the second most in baseball. Just imagine if they could stop kicking the pearl around.
• Chris Davis, professional slugger: Sent to Baltimore in the trade the shipped relief pitcher Koji Uehara to Texas, Davis finished 2011 with five home runs in 59 games. However, in 2009, in his age-23 season, Davis recorded 21 home runs with Texas. Given the opportunity for consistent playing time for the first time since ’09, Davis has 23 home runs and 64 RBI with a .256/.306/.461 line. Splitting time between first base and designated hitter, Davis’s power has been impressively consistent. He recorded four homers in April, five in May, four in June, five in July and five in August. His batting average numbers have dipped throughout the year, but Davis connects the most with runners on base, batting .311 with runners on compared to .218 with none on.
• Lights out bullpen: Baltimore was projected to be 58-68 at this point. A huge reason for the 22-game disparity is the fact that Baltimore is 54-0 when leading after seven. Think about that. Baltimore counts six bullpen pitchers with ERAs of 3.02 or lower. Setup man, and former player to be named from Texas, Pedro Strop boasts a flossy 1.43 ERA. Submarine righty Darren O’Day owns a 2.49 ERA. Lefty Troy Patton, 26, has a 2.58 ERA is his first full big league season. Righty Matt Lindstrom has found reprieve from the environs of Coors Field and Minute Maid Park in Baltimore and sports a career-low 2.72 ERA. With 61.2 innings pitched, Luis Ayala has been the bullpen innings eater. You know things are good when that guy has a 2.77 ERA. The most publicized bullpen pitcher in Baltimore owns a relatively high 3.02 ERA; however, closer Jim Johnson owns a 0.99 WHIP and counts 39 saves against three blown chances. The combined WAR of these six pitchers: 10.2.
• Manny Machado: Called up on August 9, the 20-year-old top prospect sports a .259 average with three home runs and nine RBI. However, his impact transcends statistics. Machado’s call-up embodied an all-in move by Orioles management. Machado was batting .266 in AA with 11 home runs and a .352 OBP. His number did not scream “Call Up!,” but Dan Duquette and company took a chance in calling up the 3rd pick of the 2010 MLB Draft and hoped his presence would invigorate the then 60-51 team. Baltimore is 9-6 since his arrival and Machado’s .556 slugging percentage is a significant improvement over their season output from third base of .424. Similar to most front office moves this year, the Machado call-up has worked out perfectly.

While numbers like run differential and team fielding percentage suggest a lousy squad, the Baltimore Orioles continue to find ways to win. A stellar bullpen accommodates a shaky starting staff and players such as Davis and Machado continue to produce. Starting August 27, Baltimore faces a tough stretch of 20 games, 17 against the Yankees, White Sox, Rays and Athletics. If the O’s can come exit that stretch in contention, they will enjoy the boost of playing nine of their last 12 games against Boston and Toronto. Their final three games, however, come on the road in Tampa. Could 2012 rival 2011’s end? I got Tampa finishing ahead of Baltimore, with the Orioles claiming the second Wild Card Spot. Had that for two-and-a-half months.

The Big Guy

Manny Machado called up

One day removed from Steve Johnson’s sparkling starting debut, the Orioles left no doubt about their playoff aspirations when they called up top prospect Manny Machado.

The third overall selection of the 2010 MLB Draft, the 20-year-old Machado will play third base in the bigs. He is expected to get most of his early starts against left-handed pitchers, but could claim the everyday job due to his defense.

Viewed as the shortstop of the future, Machado only logged two games at the hot corner this season with Double-A Bowie. He made one error in seven chances, whatever that is worth. In 104 games at short he posted a solid .954 fielding percentage. He has been taking balls at third as frequently as four times a week down on the farm.

Machado’s bat will not bump Baltimore out of the lower third of most rankings. He owns a .266/.352/.438 line with 11 home runs and 59 RBI in Bowie. He is a career .263 hitter in the minors who smacks fastballs and is still adjusting to the professional breaking ball.

At 6’3″, 185 pounds, Machado is still developing his body and is years away from reaching his 20 home run potential. His youth make his offensive numbers best served with a grain of salt. Perhaps the Orioles see something his numbers do not show? His 2011 numbers, .257/.335/.421, do not pop off the page, but Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations, Dan Duquette, felt comfortable promoting Machado from A+ to AA to start 2012.

Maybe the O’s system knows something we don’t know. More likely, football season starts today, the Orioles are tied for the AL Wild Card, and they want to strike both a clubhouse and a city with playoff baseball fever. Machado’s call up will go down as more of a symbolic roster move than one that will offer direct on-field rewards.

Expect Machado to hit around .250 with singe digit homers and around 20 RBI by seasons end. He will make some Sportscenter worthy stops at third, and if all goes well, his vibrant youth and now-is-the-time symbolism will be his biggest contribution to the Baltimore clubhouse as they surge their way into a postseason only one blogger saw coming.

Another note worth watching is the AA call up of top pitching prospect Dylan Bundy. Bundy owned a 6-3 record with a 2.98 ERA and 10.4 K/9 in 54.1 IP in A+. Bundy could very well be a September call up if the O’s remain in contention.

Watch Machado make his debut against lefty Will Smith and the Kansas City Royals in Camden Yards at 7:05 EST.

The Big Guy

Look at me now!!!

Fresh on a four game winning streak, the improbable Baltimore Orioles turn to rookie Steve Johnson to make it five straight. The 24-year-old righty takes the hill against the Seattle Mariners.

A 13th round pick in the 2005 MLB Draft, Johnson owns a 2.86 ERA in AAA with 8.5 K/9 and a flossy 1.062 WHIP. Johnson joined the Balitmore system in 2009 in the trade that sent reliever George Sherrill to the Dodgers.

In 28 starts in AA in 2010, Johnson struggled to a 5.09 in 28 starts over 145 IP. Johnson improved in 2011, with a 4.20 ERA in both AA and AAA. An astute O’s fan might recall Johnson’s July 15 relief appearance against Detroit when he allowed 1 ER over 2 IP.

The 6’1″, 220 pound Baltimore native will take the start in place of Tommy Hunter, who was scratched after warming up in Tuesday’s 14-inning win over the Mariners.

Seattle will start veteran right-hander Kevin Millwood, 4-9 with a 4.01 ERA. A win would tie Baltimore’s season record at five straight wins. Now is the time for Balitmore to get hot, as they will host the Kansas City Royals and Boston Red Sox over the next seven games. The Big Guy is on record saying the Orioles will make it to the playoffs.

The game is scheduled for a 7:05 EST start.

The Big Guy

A Night in the American League

Every night The Big Guy breaks down the action in the American League.

Biggest Win

Athletics 10-Angels 4: Oakland reclaimed second place in the AL West in a game that was 10-1 through seven innings. A’s starter Bartolo Colon (1-year, $2 million contract) allowed 1 unearned run over 7 IP as he outpitched L.A. starter C.J. Wilson (5-year, $77.5 million contract). Oakland’s #7-9 Murderers’ Row of Derek Norris, Adam Rosales and Jemile Weeks combined for 6 RBI on 3 hits. The California showdown will be determined tomorrow in the rubber game.

Best Hitter

The Baltimore Orioles picked up an impressive comeback victory Monday over the Seattle Mariners. The 8-7 game saw five home runs, two of them off the bat of Matt Wieters. The Oriole catcher finished 3-6, 2 HR, 2B, 2 RBI, 2 R. Baltimore remains right in the thick of things in the AL Wild Card race. Watch out for this dark horse.

Best Pitcher

James Shields dazzled in his second straight start for the Tampa Bay Rays. The 30-year-old righty went 8 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 6 K, 1 BB. Shields has lowered his ERA 0.44 over his last two outings and improved his record to 10-7 in the 4-1 win over Toronto.

Stat to Know

The Baltimore Orioles have won the first two games of their three game set with Seattle. After Tuesday’s series finale, the O’s will host Kansas City and Boston. The ten-game homestand is crucial as Baltimore approaches a grueling early-mid September.

Tomorrow’s Note

Baltimore will turn to 24-year-old rookie Steve Johnson on Tuesday. The righty will face 37-year-old Kevin Millwood in his first career start. Johnson owns a 2.86 ERA in 91.1 IP in AAA this season.

A Night in the American League

Every night The Big Guy breaks down the action in the American League.

Biggest Win

White Sox 4-Angels 2: Chicago remained hot as they picked up their 7th win in 10 games and remain 1.5 games ahead of the Detroit Tigers for the AL Central lead. Sox catcher A.J. Pierzynski hit a home run in his fifth straight game and the bullpen allowed one run over four innings following start Francisco Liriano’s injury-induced exit after five. The loss sends Los Angeles into third place in the AL West, a half game behind the Oakland Athletics.

Best Hitter

The Detroit Tigers matched the White Sox with a 10-8 win over the Cleveland Racists. Detroits #1-2 hitters, Austin Jackson and Omar Infante combined to hit 8-12. With so many at-bats with Jackson on base, Infante’s 3 RBI earn him the nod. Overall, he went 4-6, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, 3 R. A fun fact on the .287 hitting Infante: in 366 at-bats, he has 13 walks. Nice .310 OBP, buddy.

Best Pitcher

The Tampa Bay Rays fell to division rival Baltimore Sunday, but don’t blame David Price. The 14-4 lefty went 8 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 5 K. Price lowered his ERA to 2.49. The Vanderbilt product has thrown at least 7 innings in each of his last nine starts, each of which have been quality starts.

Stat To Know

Detroit Tigers centerfielder Austin Jackson extended his hitting streak to eight games Sunday. The toolsy 25-year-old posted a single hit in his first seven games before breaking out for four hits against the Cleveland Racists on Sunday. His third season in the league has been quite a bounce back after his sophomore slump.

• Jackson in 2011: .249/.317/.374
• Jackson in 2012: .322/.409/.518

Tomorrow’s Note

The Baltimore Orioles will start a three game set against the Seattle Mariners. The AL West basement dwellers are 8-2 in their last ten, making Seattle the hottest team in the league. The home Orioles are 6-4 in their last ten. The red hot Jason Vargas will take the bump for the Mariners against Baltimore’s 24-year-old Chris Tillman.

A Night in the American League

Every night The Big Guy breaks down the action in the American League.

Biggest Win

Angels 6-Rangers 2: Los Angeles’ #1-3 hitters combined to go 6-14, 6 RBI while Texas’ #1-3 hitters went 0-12. Los Angeles starting pitcher Jered Weaver threw 6.1 IP, 5 H, 2 ER on the way to his 14th win. That #3 hitter for L.A., some guy named Albert Pujols, blasted two home runs in the game. He finished July with 8 home runs, 20 RBI and a .330 batting average. Los Angeles now sits 3 games behind the AL East-leading Rangers after taking the first two of this four game series. With one of the Greatest Players of All-Time heating up and rookie Mike Trout playing MVP-caliber ball, the Rangers should be very, very afraid.

Best Hitter

Nick Markakis was a problem Yankee pitchers could not figure out Tuesday. The Baltimore leadoff hitter went 3-5, HR, 2 RBI, 2 R in an 11-5 victory. Baltimore batted with clutch as ten of their 11 RBI came with two outs. The Big Guy is a recorded believer in the O’s, and they will go for the three-game sweep Wednesday against the AL East-leading Yankees. Baltimore is 5.5 back from the Yanks and 1.5 back from the second AL Wild Card.

Best Pitcher

Remember the James Shields that threw 11 complete games in 2011? That Shields posted a 2.82 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, struck out 225 batters and a 4.7 WAR. James Shields 2012 is a different animal: 4.24 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, -0.2 WAR. James Shields 2012 rediscovered JS ’11 for nine innings Tuesday night. The Tampa Bay righty threw a complete game shutout with 11 K, 0 BB, 3 H. The outing against the Oakland Athletics lowered his ERA 0.28. The 54-50 Rays will need more JS ’11 appearances if they are to claim a postseason position.

Stat to Know

New White Sox starting pitcher Francisco Liriano went 6 IP, 2 ER, 8 K, 4 BB against his old team Tuesday. The solid stats did not surprise any Minnesota Twins fans. Liriano’s season statistics are skewed by poor performances away from Target Field.

Stats at Target Field: 4.45 ERA, .196 BA against, 10.7 K/9

Stats away from Target Field: 6.31 ERA, .292 BA against, 8.7 K/9

Tomorrow’s Note

Trying for their third straight win over division rival Texas, the L.A. Angels turn to 24-year-old Garrett Richards. The 6’3″ righty owns a 3.91 ERA but has greatly benefited from outstanding defense behind him. Batters are hitting .266 against him and his WHIP is 1.55.

A Night in the American League

Every night The Big Guy breaks down the action in the American League.

Best Win

Orioles 6-Ray 2: In a battle of second fiddle AL East teams, Baltimore found something they don’t run across too often. A quality start. Chris Tillman, a 6’5″ righty, went 6 IP, 2 ER for his third quality appearance in four starts this season. Baltimore ranks 26th in team quality starts but Tillman’s arm and left fielder Chris Davis’ bat (2-4, 4 RBI) pushed the O’s past Tampa Bay. Baltimore now leads Tampa Bay by one game.

Best Hitter

Edwin Encarnacion is doing his best to help Toronto Blue Jays fans deal with the grief of losing slugger Jose Bautista. The 29-year-old Dominican is enjoying a breakout season that continued last night when he went 2-4, HR, 3 RBI in a 10-4 victory over the red-hot Oakland Athletics. Encarnacion has eight extra-base hits in his last ten games.

Best Pitcher

Don’t tell anyone, but Jason Vargas is putting together one hell of a season in Seattle. The 29-year-old lefty allowed one hit over 8 IP as he earned his fourth consecutive win, this time against the Kansas City Royals. Despite pitching for a losing team (44-57), Vargas is fourth in the American League with 11 wins and third in the AL in innings pitched. The Mariners are 12-10 in Vargas’ starts. He posted a 1.46 ERA in July.

Stat to Know

Oakland Athletics starter Tommy Milone continued a troubling trend Thursday. After going 7 IP, 5 ER in Toronto, Milone’s road ERA sits at 5.77. His home ERA in spacious Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum is 0.91.

Tomorrow’s Note

Converted Toronto reliever Carlos Villanueva will make his fifth start of the season against the travelling Detroit Tigers. In 23.1 IP, Villanueva has a 2.35 ERA while starting. He is 5-0 this year with three of those wins coming in his last three starts.