Comparing Verlander 2012 to Verlander 2011

Justin Verlander’s 2011 season went magically. The overpowering righty went 24-5 and won the AL Cy Young as well as the AL MVP.

Verlander posted absurd numbers: 2.40 ERA, 250 K, 8.3 WAR, 0.92 WHIP. He prevented 58 more runs than a normal pitcher would have and batters hit .192 against him. Following a year such as Verlander’s 2011, it is inevitable that fans will feel a let down after a season from the baseball gods. Through 20 starts Verlander is 11-5. While his wins are down, that statistic does not tell the story.

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)

Fangraphs tracks this cool stat called FIP. The idea is to take the other eight guys on the field out of the equation when figuring a pitchers ERA. In 2011, Verlander’s FIP was 2.99. This season he improved to 2.93. This may not seem like much but a pitcher of Verlander’s quality only has so much room to improve by.

ERA-

This is the runs prevented statistic. Last year Verlander had an ERA- of 58 in 34 starts. This year he already has -59 in 20 starts.

LOB%

Stranding runners is a must for every pitcher. Last season, Verlander stranded a staggering 80.3% of runners. This year his number is down a bit to 76.1%. That number is still solid and better than his career average of 73.5%

Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)

Last season opponents hit .236 when putting the ball in play against Verlander. He had about one better hop last year than this year. His number in 2012: .238. Of course, this number can be taken with the FIP, which suggests improvement on Verlanders part and perhaps a bit of a defensive downgrade by Detroit this season. The story is a coinflip in WHIP as well; in both seasons it was 0.92.

K/9

An ace must have the ability to punch people out. Verlander’s K/9 went down from 8.96 to 8.60 in 2012. This could relate to the fact that Verlander’s velocity is down about 1 MPH on each of his four pitches.

WAR

The tool for Wins Above Replacement suggests that Verlander is better this season. His WAR/start was .244 last season. In 2012 his WAR/start is .255.

When things didn’t take a strong start for Detroit this season, a few rumblings about Verlander not getting it done came out. These complaints are unfounded and it appears Verlander is at his MVP level of last season, if not slightly above it.

The Big Guy

A Night in the American League

Every night The Big Guy breaks down the action in the American League.

Biggest Win

Tigers 4-White Sox 2: Detroit pulled within 1/2 game of the AL Central lead Friday. The Sox continued to fall, 4-6 in their last ten, as Detroit continued to climb, 8-2 in their last ten. Tigers ace Justin Verlander went 8 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 6 K as he outdueled fellow Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy, who allowed 4 ER over 7 IP. The White Sox #3-4 hitters, Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko, combined to go 0-8 while Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, Detroit’s #3-4, went 4-8 with 2 RBI.

Best Hitter

Behind 20-year-old center fielder Mike Trout and the thunderous Mark Trumbo, Albert Pujols continues to heat up. Pujols went 3-4, 2B, R on Friday and kicked his batting average up to .281, the highest since April 19. After hitting .217 in April, Pujols hit .263 in May, .326 in June and is hitting .345 in July. Pujol’s three hits fueled the Angels past the division rival Texas Rangers, 5-1. The Angels currently lead the Wild Card and appear to be a lock for the playoffs. When Trout inevitably cools off, look for Pujols to keep Los Angeles winning.

Best Pitcher

Toronto lefty starter Aaron Laffey went 7 IP, 0 ER, 8 H, 4 K as he picked up his second win of the season over the Boston Red Sox. The 27-year-old converted reliever did not make a single start in 47 appearances last season. After four relief appearances this season, Toronto converted Laffey back to a starter, something he has been since breaking into the majors with Cleveland in 2007. Laffey may not have dominated the Red Sox lineup, but scattering hits is a sign of a clutch pitcher. As the only team below .500 in the AL East at 46-47, Toronto needs to win now if they are going to make a Wild Card push.

Stat to know

Oakland Athletics starting pitcher Tommy Milone has allowed 2 ER or less in 13 of his 19 starts this season. The 25-year-old lefty rookie is 9-6 this seasonw ith a 3.34 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Milone was part of the trade that sent starting pitcher Gio Gonzalez to the Washington Nationals on December 23, 2011.

Tomorrow’s Note

White Sox stud Chris Sale, 11-2 2.11 ERA, takes the mound as Chicago battles Detroit with the AL Central lead on the line. Detroit will throw 23-year-old Rick Porcello. Already in his fourth major league season, Porcello sports a 4.66 ERA with a 6-5 mark. After a 14-9 season with a 2.2 WAR as a 20-year-old, Porcello has never posted a season with a WAR above 1.0.

A Night in the American League

Every night The Big Guy breaks down the action in the American League.

Biggest Win

Indians 2- Tigers 1: Division titles are not won on paper. Everyone’s preseason pick to win the AL Central fell six games back as the division leading Indians completed the three game sweep. The Indians held the heralded Tiger bats to a measly six runs in the series. Indians pitcher Justin Masterson outdueled reigning AL MVP Justin Verlander by allowing 1 ER over 7 IP and closer Chris Perez earned his ML best 16th save of the season.

Best Hitter

Justin Morneau went 3-5 with 2 HR and a double. While his 10 total bases came in an 11-8 losing effort against the Chicago White Sox, Morneau did raise his batting average from .230 to .248. The 31-year-old Canadian may never again regain his 2006 form of 34 HR and .321 batting average, but for one night he reminded AL pitchers of the danger that lurks when you leave something fat over the plate for the left-handed batter to hack at.

Best Pitcher

Dan Haren’s 14 K’s and complete game shutout over the Mariners earns the biggest AL star of the night. Teammate Albert Pujols his his 5th bomb of the season and went 3-4 with 2 RBI, but even DH Kendrys Morales’ lone RBI would have been enough for Haren tonight. The win comes as only Haren’s second of the season but comes in as espn.com’s 5th best pitching performance of the season, just under teammate Jared Weaver’s no-hitter.

Stat to know

The Twin’s Joe Mauer hit a home run tonight, which means he doubled his home run total on the season. Over his last three seasons Mauer has hit a home run every 68.7 AB’s. In 2009, when Mauer his 28 HR, Mauer went yard every 18.7 AB’s.

Tomorrow’s Note

The Tampa Bay Rays start a three game road series with the Boston Red Sox tomorrow. The Rays’ scheduled starters are Alex Cobb, David Price and Jeremy Hellickson. Those starters ages are 24, 26 and 25, respectively.

A Night in the American League

Every night The Big Guy breaks down the action in the American League.

Biggest Win

Red Sox 6- Orioles 5: On May 10 the Sox dropped a series opener at home to Cleveland to fall to 12-19. Their win tonight pulled them to an even 22-22. Two-hit games from each of their 5-9 hitters covered off nights from Big Papi and Adrian Gonzalez, who, according to the box score, played right field at some point. Gonzalez never grabbed an outfielders glove in San Diego but did so once in Texas in 2005. Terry Francona threw his new toy into right twice last year. This was the third time Bobby V placed Gonzo in right this year, which makes for a career high in appearances at 9. The Sox may occupy the AL East basement, but they are only 5.5 games back from first-place Baltimore and took two of three in the series.

Best Hitter

Alex Rodriguez went yard in his first two at-bats Wednesday. Those shots broke the 36-year-old’s 14-game homerless streak.

Best Pitcher

Kevin Millwood gave up 3 hits over 6 IP of shutout ball to earn his third win of the year. The 37-year-old shut down Texas’ major league leading bats as Seattle prevailed 5-3.

Stat to know

Josh Hamilton went 2-4 with an RBI Wednesday. He leads the AL in home runs (18) by four and in RBI (49) by 12. However, Paul Konerko’s 3-hit day brought his average to a league-leading .381,  two-thousandths of a point higher than Hamilton.

Tomorrow’s Note

The Tigers’ Justin Verlander takes the bump tomorrow as the Detroit looks to avoid the sweep again division leader Cleveland. In his last two starts Verlander has allowed 3 hits while racking up 20 K’s in 16 IP.