How the Baltimore Orioles keep on winning

The numbers do not add up. How can a team outscored by 46 runs against its opponents stand 12 games above .500? How can a team with the fourth fewest quality starts and the sixth lowest on-base percentage find themselves tied for the second American League Wild Card spot with 36 games to play? Casual fans may know Adam Jones, Baltimore’s All-Star centerfielder. More avid fans may know their two other All-Stars, closer Jim Johnson and catcher Matt Wieters.

The answers to the Orioles improbable are not unusual. Any given year a team can find a spark, a bit of confidence the heavyweights of the baseball world do not want the little guys to have. All of a sudden, Texas leaguers begin to drop. Guys not listed in the pregame program hit momentum-altering home runs. The signs of a blessed season are all there for Baltimore. Here are a few:

• 23-6 and 12-2: The records, respectively, of Baltimore in one-run games and extra-innings games. No other team comes close to the O’s winning percentage in tight games. Division rivals New York and Tampa Bay are 15-18 and 18-21, respectively. When the game passes the ninth frame, Baltimore is again the best in the business. Only Washington also boasts double-digit extra-innings wins, standing 11-6. This year’s Orioles could rival the daring and chutzpah of a Cirque du Soleil act. Shockingly, the O’s cannot attribute their close game success to solid fundamentals— their 94 errors are the second most in baseball. Just imagine if they could stop kicking the pearl around.
• Chris Davis, professional slugger: Sent to Baltimore in the trade the shipped relief pitcher Koji Uehara to Texas, Davis finished 2011 with five home runs in 59 games. However, in 2009, in his age-23 season, Davis recorded 21 home runs with Texas. Given the opportunity for consistent playing time for the first time since ’09, Davis has 23 home runs and 64 RBI with a .256/.306/.461 line. Splitting time between first base and designated hitter, Davis’s power has been impressively consistent. He recorded four homers in April, five in May, four in June, five in July and five in August. His batting average numbers have dipped throughout the year, but Davis connects the most with runners on base, batting .311 with runners on compared to .218 with none on.
• Lights out bullpen: Baltimore was projected to be 58-68 at this point. A huge reason for the 22-game disparity is the fact that Baltimore is 54-0 when leading after seven. Think about that. Baltimore counts six bullpen pitchers with ERAs of 3.02 or lower. Setup man, and former player to be named from Texas, Pedro Strop boasts a flossy 1.43 ERA. Submarine righty Darren O’Day owns a 2.49 ERA. Lefty Troy Patton, 26, has a 2.58 ERA is his first full big league season. Righty Matt Lindstrom has found reprieve from the environs of Coors Field and Minute Maid Park in Baltimore and sports a career-low 2.72 ERA. With 61.2 innings pitched, Luis Ayala has been the bullpen innings eater. You know things are good when that guy has a 2.77 ERA. The most publicized bullpen pitcher in Baltimore owns a relatively high 3.02 ERA; however, closer Jim Johnson owns a 0.99 WHIP and counts 39 saves against three blown chances. The combined WAR of these six pitchers: 10.2.
• Manny Machado: Called up on August 9, the 20-year-old top prospect sports a .259 average with three home runs and nine RBI. However, his impact transcends statistics. Machado’s call-up embodied an all-in move by Orioles management. Machado was batting .266 in AA with 11 home runs and a .352 OBP. His number did not scream “Call Up!,” but Dan Duquette and company took a chance in calling up the 3rd pick of the 2010 MLB Draft and hoped his presence would invigorate the then 60-51 team. Baltimore is 9-6 since his arrival and Machado’s .556 slugging percentage is a significant improvement over their season output from third base of .424. Similar to most front office moves this year, the Machado call-up has worked out perfectly.

While numbers like run differential and team fielding percentage suggest a lousy squad, the Baltimore Orioles continue to find ways to win. A stellar bullpen accommodates a shaky starting staff and players such as Davis and Machado continue to produce. Starting August 27, Baltimore faces a tough stretch of 20 games, 17 against the Yankees, White Sox, Rays and Athletics. If the O’s can come exit that stretch in contention, they will enjoy the boost of playing nine of their last 12 games against Boston and Toronto. Their final three games, however, come on the road in Tampa. Could 2012 rival 2011’s end? I got Tampa finishing ahead of Baltimore, with the Orioles claiming the second Wild Card Spot. Had that for two-and-a-half months.

The Big Guy

Manny Machado called up

One day removed from Steve Johnson’s sparkling starting debut, the Orioles left no doubt about their playoff aspirations when they called up top prospect Manny Machado.

The third overall selection of the 2010 MLB Draft, the 20-year-old Machado will play third base in the bigs. He is expected to get most of his early starts against left-handed pitchers, but could claim the everyday job due to his defense.

Viewed as the shortstop of the future, Machado only logged two games at the hot corner this season with Double-A Bowie. He made one error in seven chances, whatever that is worth. In 104 games at short he posted a solid .954 fielding percentage. He has been taking balls at third as frequently as four times a week down on the farm.

Machado’s bat will not bump Baltimore out of the lower third of most rankings. He owns a .266/.352/.438 line with 11 home runs and 59 RBI in Bowie. He is a career .263 hitter in the minors who smacks fastballs and is still adjusting to the professional breaking ball.

At 6’3″, 185 pounds, Machado is still developing his body and is years away from reaching his 20 home run potential. His youth make his offensive numbers best served with a grain of salt. Perhaps the Orioles see something his numbers do not show? His 2011 numbers, .257/.335/.421, do not pop off the page, but Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations, Dan Duquette, felt comfortable promoting Machado from A+ to AA to start 2012.

Maybe the O’s system knows something we don’t know. More likely, football season starts today, the Orioles are tied for the AL Wild Card, and they want to strike both a clubhouse and a city with playoff baseball fever. Machado’s call up will go down as more of a symbolic roster move than one that will offer direct on-field rewards.

Expect Machado to hit around .250 with singe digit homers and around 20 RBI by seasons end. He will make some Sportscenter worthy stops at third, and if all goes well, his vibrant youth and now-is-the-time symbolism will be his biggest contribution to the Baltimore clubhouse as they surge their way into a postseason only one blogger saw coming.

Another note worth watching is the AA call up of top pitching prospect Dylan Bundy. Bundy owned a 6-3 record with a 2.98 ERA and 10.4 K/9 in 54.1 IP in A+. Bundy could very well be a September call up if the O’s remain in contention.

Watch Machado make his debut against lefty Will Smith and the Kansas City Royals in Camden Yards at 7:05 EST.

The Big Guy